Case Study

Worked readings of the index — by the capability that binds nations together,
and by the nations whose dependence shapes the system.

Capabilities

Where a single capability concentrates dependence — and who holds the chokepoints.
Semiconductors
Fabrication & lithography
A handful of fabs and one lithography supplier underwrite the entire chip supply chain — the sharpest chokepoint in the corpus.
Critical Minerals
Rare earths & refining
Mining is dispersed, but refining and processing of rare earths sit almost entirely with one supplier — fragility with no easy substitute.
Energy & LNG
Pipelines & cargoes
Pipelines lock in dependence; LNG cargoes let it be re-routed. The shift between the two redraws Europe–Eurasia ties in real time.
AI Compute
Accelerators & data centres
Access to advanced accelerators is now a strategic dependency in its own right, reshaping who can build frontier models — and who cannot.

Nations

How one nation sits in the dependence graph — who it leans on, and who leans on it.
🇺🇸
United States
USA · the hub others orbit
Maximal leverage and reach: the partner most others depend on, anchoring alliances across every region.
🇨🇳
China
CHN · the manufacturing chokepoint
Dominant in processing and manufacturing dependence, while actively diversifying its own upstream exposure.
🇮🇳
India
IND · the swing connector
A rising bridge between blocs — deepening ties in multiple directions without committing fully to any.
🇸🇬
Singapore
SGP · reach beyond its size
An outsized connector: breadth of engagement and reciprocity far exceeding what its scale would predict.